Preview SVK-RUS: Tense Moment for Russia in Žilina

October 6th, 2011 | by: nick | Comments(5)

Every Russian fan will remember when Russia went into a seemingly easy World Cup qualifier play-off against Slovenia two years ago full of complacency and overconfidence. Bilyaletdinov scored a double and Russia were seemingly on their way. But the return leg in Maribor turned into a huge disaster as Russia fell behind and were reduced to nine men after Kerzhakov and Zhirkov were sent off. Earlier this week, Dick Advocaat was quoted indicating that he will resign if Russia fail to reach Euro 2012. Additionally, this will be a repeat of the Russia’s final 2006 FIFA World Cup qualifier in November 2005.

With that in mind, this match in Žilina is very critical. Russia sit at the top of Group B, with Ireland and Armenia trailing by two points and Slovakia by three. A win for Russia will leave them with almost certain automatic qualification ahead of their final fixture at home to Andorra. A draw coupled with a win against Andorra would most likely put Russia ahead of Ireland on level points due to their head to head record. A loss would make things very difficult and put Russia into another tense and nerve wrecking playoff. Most of Advocaat’s squad played in the playoff to Slovenia two years ago and are keen to not repeat the same mistakes in tomorrow’s match.

Russia
Russia head into this game with an almost fully strong squad but injury has ruled out Aleksandr Kerzhakov, Igor Akinfeev, and Dmitri Torbinski. Adovaat has called up Aleksander Samedov, Vladimir Dyadyun, and Anton Shunin as replacements. All three players have been in impressive form for their clubs and provide valuable depth.

Adocaat is likely to use a 4-2-3-1 or 4-5-1 formation in order to maintain possession. Controlling the midfield will be critical against a team like Slovakia with players like Vladimir Wiess, Miroslav Stoch, and Marek Hamšík. Igor Semshov proved himself as an effective attacking midfielder flanked by Arshavin and Zyrianov in the last two qualifiers. It would only make sense for Advocaat to use this attacking midfield unit in front of Shirokov and Denisov. Another possibility would be to use Dzagoev or Bilyaletdinov somewhere in the formation which will add extra creativity.

Igor Akinfeev has been Russia’s number one goalkeeper since 2006, but injury has ruled him out for the rest of the year. His deputy Vyacheslav Malafeev is a natural replacement and has already proven himself in two matches against Macedonia and Ireland.

The back line will consist of Advocaat’s usual starters with the possibility that Zhirkov will play further up the field. In that case the left back role would be wide open for one of the Berezutski brothers. The central defense is likely to be manned by Sergei Ignashevich and one of the Berezutski brothers. Advocaat does have and interesting habit of picking only six defenders in his overall squads which leaves the defense very short handed. Defenders like Taras Burlak, Yevgeni Makeev, and Sergei Parshivlyuk should all be phased into the senior national squad incase of injuries or suspensions.

Kerzhakov’s absence is a major blow for Russia as his pace and goalscoring are have been crucial in the campaign so far. Roman Pavlyuchenko and Pavel Pogrebnyak sound like good replacements on paper but are continuing to struggle at club level. The advantage they hold is their height creates and imposing presence in the opposing half and the ability to draw defenders out of position to allow players like Semshov, Arshavin, and Zyrianov to score.

Slovakia
Slovakia will look to repeat their victory in Moscow last year and put their campaign back on track after a shocking loss to Armenia. Though, Slovakia have also had trouble scoring goals, they are more than capable of springing a trap and pushing Russia on the counter attack. Only victory will give Slovakia the position they need in order keep realistic chances of qualification.

Castrol Prediction

The game will be on ESPN3 at 2:15PM EDT in the US